AI tips Arsenal to fend off Man City in a nail-biting 25/26 title chase

Crunch time, then. With Arsenal on 70 points from 31 matches and Manchester City nine back on 61 with a game in hand, the 2025/26 Premier League title looks destined for North London or the blue half of Manchester. An AI projection has run the rule over both run-ins, and the verdict is this: Arsenal hold their nerve while City charge hard but fall just short.

City’s chase: near-perfect, but not quite

Pep Guardiola’s side have found a groove of late, yet recent stumbles against Nottingham Forest and West Ham left them with precious little margin for error. According to the model, City are set for another couple of speed bumps: a 1-1 draw at Chelsea and a similarly cagey 1-1 against Arsenal at the Etihad. After that, it’s full steam ahead.

The forecast has City rattling off six straight wins: Burnley away (0-3), Everton at the Hill Dickinson Stadium (1-2), Brentford at home (2-0), Bournemouth away (1-3), Aston Villa at the Etihad (2-1) and Crystal Palace back in Manchester (2-0). That’s 20 points from their final eight — champion form, but not enough if Arsenal keep ticking.

Arsenal’s response: composed and unbeaten

Arsenal had a wobble back in February, but Mikel Arteta’s lot steadied the ship with wins over Tottenham, Chelsea, Brighton and Everton — and the AI expects them to stay unbeaten down the stretch. The projection opens with a 3-1 home win against Bournemouth, then that pivotal 1-1 draw away to City that would suit the league leaders just fine.

There’s drama on the horizon, mind. The model fancies a 2-2 share with Newcastle at the Emirates, before the Gunners grind out three straight victories — Fulham (2-1), West Ham at the London Stadium (0-2) and Burnley (3-0). The curtain is tipped to fall with a 1-1 at Selhurst Park against Crystal Palace.

The verdict: margins, moments, and a long-awaited payoff

Add it all up and the AI has Arsenal banking 15 more points and City collecting 20. On that basis, the final shake-up reads Arsenal 85, Man City 81. Crucially, the Etihad draw looms large — deny City the home win and the door to a late smash-and-grab title swing all but closes.

There’s a familiar City surge in this story, but also a ruthlessness about Arsenal that’s been missing in past run-ins. Keep their heads, manage the big moments, and the Gunners can finally end the wait for a league title — their first since 2004 — even with City finishing like a train.

AI leans Arsenal despite City’s surge — and if you’re weighing up how the odds might move in the run-in, have a look at the best betting sites before making your mind up.

Pundit’s take

Hard to argue with the logic: City all but need perfection, and the model refuses to hand them the Etihad swing game. Arsenal’s predicted draws feel plausible — Newcastle can bloody any nose — but the leaders’ knack for controlling tempo and territory should see them through. It’s thin margins and sweaty palms from here, yet the numbers back Arsenal to finish the job while City are left cursing those early spring slip-ups.