Title race on a knife-edge: who’s got the friendliest festive run?

Eight games in and we’ve already got a three-horse canter at the top. Arsenal set the early pace on 19 points, Manchester City keep the leaders honest on 16, and Liverpool lurk on 15 with plenty of gears left. It’s early doors, yes, but the winter slog is where title bids harden or crack. With cups flying in midweek and Europe draining legs, the next 11 league fixtures will tell us more than any hot take in October.

How we’ve judged it

Simple measure, useful picture: we’ve averaged the current league positions of each club’s next 11 opponents. Bigger number, on paper, means softer schedule. It’s not a title predictor, but it does tell you who’s got the chance to stack points while others slog through the heavy stuff.

Liverpool have the cushiest path (average opponent position: 13.9)

Arne Slot’s reign flew out of the blocks with seven straight wins before a nasty wobble—four defeats on the spin across all competitions, their worst such run since November 2014. The new blue-chip buys, Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak, haven’t caught fire yet—between them, not much in the way of goal contributions—while the old guard, Virgil van Dijk and Mohamed Salah, are being asked to turn back the clock every three days. Even so, the calendar is kind. Trips to Manchester City and Tottenham are the headline hazards, but there’s a host of opportunities to reset: Brentford away, Wolves and Nottingham Forest at Anfield, and a double-header with Leeds that could be point-printing territory.

Slot’s to-do list? Sharpen the press, speed up the supply line into Isak, and let Wirtz pull strings between the lines rather than hugging touch. If Liverpool steady the ship, this run screams momentum builder. For punters eyeing form and fixtures on the best betting sites, it’s worth underlining that right now, Liverpool’s slate to New Year looks the softest of the three.

Arsenal sit in the sweet spot (average opponent position: 12.3)

Mikel Arteta’s side have the best defence in the division and have conceded just once from open play so far. That’s a title-maker. They’re also the set-piece kings—since the start of 2023/24, Arsenal have rattled in 37 goals from corners, a whopping 16 more than anyone else. The flip side? A touch of overreliance on dead balls, and Viktor Gyökeres is still finding his Premier League finishing boots. If the Swede catches rhythm, the Gunners add another layer to an already well-drilled machine.

The fixtures are friendly without being a free pass. Palace at the Emirates, Burnley away, Sunderland away, Spurs at home, then Chelsea at Stamford Bridge: only two away days against current top-half sides in this block. Villa feature twice and Everton away—at the renamed Hill Dickinson Stadium—won’t be a picnic, but on balance this is a golden window to stretch that three-point lead over City and keep last season’s champions firmly in the rear-view.

Man City face the stiffest test (average opponent position: 11.9)

Peak Manchester City is a juggernaut no one wants to stand in front of. They’re unbeaten in eight and just brushed past Everton 2-0, with Phil Foden humming back towards his undroppable best. But the schedule is a gauntlet. Away to Aston Villa, Newcastle and Crystal Palace, plus a tricky visit to Fulham and a double date with the season’s surprise package Sunderland (home and away) either side of Christmas. Add Liverpool and high-flying Bournemouth rolling into the Etihad and it’s a demanding stretch even for serial winners.

Pep Guardiola’s balancing act will be key—rotate too much and rhythm goes; rotate too little and legs go. Keep Erling Haaland fit, let Foden and the creators cook, and City can still make light work of heavy fixtures. But if there’s a month where chinks appear, this is it.

Fixture difficulty ranking (easiest to hardest)

1) Liverpool – average opponent position 13.9 (softest run on paper)

2) Arsenal – 12.3 (manageable, with room to press the advantage)

3) Manchester City – 11.9 (the most testing slate of the trio)

The verdict

Arsenal have the platform and the defensive steel to keep their noses in front. Liverpool’s calendar is primed for a resurgence—if the big-money lads spark into life. City, as ever, can simply overpower the chaos, but this is the period most likely to nip at their heels. Come New Year’s Day, we’ll know whether the chasing pack have reeled in the leaders—or if the Gunners have turned a fast start into firm control.