Run-in Reality Check: Arsenal hold the cards as City face a gauntlet and Villa won’t go quietly

We’ve hit the sharp end of the 2025/26 Premier League season, and the title race has that familiar crackle. Arsenal lead the pack on 57 points from 26 matches (goal difference +32), with Manchester City four back on 53 (+30) and Aston Villa an ever-improving third on 50 (+10). It’s tight, tense and teed up for a grandstand finish.

How we’ve ranked the run-ins

Simple yardstick, sensible context: we’ve used the average current league position of each club’s remaining opponents (as of 13/02/2026) to gauge difficulty, then layered in a bit of footballing nous about momentum, venues and banana skins. On that basis: City face the sternest test, Villa sit in the middle, and Arsenal have the kindest schedule on paper.

3) Manchester City – the toughest stretch (Average opponent position: 10.4)

Pep Guardiola’s lot are still ominously close and, lest we forget, they’re the only team ever to win four Premier League titles on the spin (2020/21 to 2023/24). Erling Haaland will take care of the goals – the question is whether City can tighten up at the back when it matters most.

There’s a gentle on-ramp: Newcastle and Nottingham Forest at the Etihad split by trips to Leeds and West Ham should yield a healthy haul. But from there, it bites. A tricky visit to Chelsea in mid-April is followed by the blockbuster – Arsenal at the Etihad on 18 April. Call it a six-pointer, a decider, the lot; it’s the night that could tilt the whole campaign.

After that, there’s no free hit: awkward away days at Burnley and Everton, Brentford at home – who love bloodying noses – Bournemouth away, and then Aston Villa at the Etihad on the final day. Oh, and a rearranged Crystal Palace date still lurking. It’s a proper gauntlet, even for City.

2) Aston Villa – middling overall, brutal finish (Average opponent position: 12.1)

From five games without a win and a single goal to genuine contenders – Unai Emery has turned Villa into a side nobody enjoys facing. They’re the outsiders, yes, but they’re resilient and streetwise enough to make a nuisance of themselves.

Leeds at Villa Park should be bankable, then it’s a short hop to rock-bottom Wolves before Chelsea come to town. Old Trafford awaits after that, with West Ham at home offering some respite. April gives Villa a chance to stack points – Forest away, Sunderland at home and Fulham at the Cottage – ahead of a potentially decisive May.

And that run-in is nasty: Burnley away, Liverpool at Villa Park and then City at the Etihad on the final day. If Villa are still swinging by then, they could yet shape where the trophy lands – even if it doesn’t end up in B6.

1) Arsenal – the kindest on paper, but tests remain (Average opponent position: 12.2)

Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have married control with a steely defence – just 18 conceded – and that’s why they sit top with 17 wins from 26. The nagging concern? A touch more ruthlessness in the final third, with questions still lingering over the cutting edge when games get tight.

The Gunners’ next steps look inviting: Wolves away, then a short trip to Spurs, who are hovering above the trapdoor. The trickier patch arrives through March and April – Chelsea at the Emirates, Brighton away, Everton away, Bournemouth at home – before the seismic journey to the Etihad on 18 April and Newcastle back in North London a week later.

From there, it smooths out: Fulham at home, West Ham away, Burnley at the Emirates and Palace at Selhurst Park to close. On balance, Arsenal have the softest landing of the trio – but titles are won by handling the pressure moments, not just the averages.

Verdict: all roads lead to the Etihad

City’s path is the rockiest, Villa’s is manageable until that savage finish, and Arsenal’s is the friendliest. But one date towers over the lot – 18 April in Manchester. If Arsenal avoid defeat there, they’ll fancy themselves to bring it home for the first time since 2003/04. If City find their late-season groove, they’ve proved time and again they can mow down any gap.

For those who fancy a flutter on the run-in, check the best betting sites before you have a punt – and remember: this title race could swing on a single night at the Etihad. Strap in; the business end has truly begun.