Title race run‑in ranked: City’s gauntlet, Arsenal’s balance, Villa’s opening

The business end is upon us and the margins are getting thinner than a linesman’s flag. Arsenal lead the way, Manchester City are looming, and Aston Villa are lurking with intent. On the numbers, on the nerve, and on the nuance of their remaining slates, here’s how the run‑ins stack up.

How we’ve ranked the run‑ins

Simple, really: we’ve looked at the average league position of each club’s remaining Premier League opponents (positions correct as of 19/02/2026). By that metric, Manchester City draw the short straw (average 10.4), Arsenal sit in the middle lane (11.5), and Aston Villa have the friendliest route (12.1). The table right now? Arsenal 58 points from 27 (GD +32), City 53 from 26 (GD +30), Villa 50 from 26 (GD +10). It’s tight, and it’s tasty.

For those eyeing the race from a punter’s perch, our run‑in rankings sit neatly alongside the markets on the best betting sites. Form, fitness and fixture flow will decide this title — and the numbers point one way.

Manchester City: toughest test ahead

Pep Guardiola’s side are tracking the leaders, but their calendar is a proper examination. There’s an inviting on‑ramp — Newcastle (10), Leeds (15), Forest (17) and West Ham (18) should all be bankable — yet the road turns nasty in April. Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on 11 April is the prelude to the blockbuster on 18 April, when Arsenal arrive at the Etihad for what looks every inch a six‑pointer. Win that and the noise changes; lose it and the crown may head south.

After Arsenal, City hit the grindstone again: Burnley (19) away, Everton (8) away at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, then Brentford (7) at home, Bournemouth (9) away, and a finale that drips with jeopardy — Aston Villa at the Etihad on 24 May, plus a to‑be‑arranged Etihad date with Crystal Palace (13). For context, City are the only club ever to win four Premier League titles on the bounce (2020/21–2023/24). That pedigree will be tested by this itinerary.

Arsenal: steady middle lane with a sting in April

Seventeen wins from 27 is title form, and Arsenal’s defensive platform remains the bedrock. The concern? The cutting edge hasn’t always purred — Viktor Gyökeres has grafted, but the finishing has blown hot and cold. As for the run‑in, it’s balanced. A derby at Spurs (16) on 22 February — now under Igor Tudor — sharpens the senses before Chelsea at the Emirates on 1 March and Brighton away on 4 March. A tricky trip to Everton (8) on 14 March at the Hill Dickinson Stadium follows.

April is the pivot: Bournemouth (9) at home on 11 April, then the trip to City on 18 April — the night that could define the lot — before Newcastle (10) at the Emirates on 25 April. If the Gunners are still top heading into May, they’ll fancy the glide path: Fulham (12) at home on 2 May, West Ham (18) away on 9 May, Burnley (19) at home on 17 May, and Palace (13) away on the final day. It’s not a free hit, but it’s the most manageable of the favourites.

Aston Villa: the outsiders with the opening

From five games without a win and one goal scored to live title chatter — Unai Emery has turned angst into ambition. Villa remain the outside shot, but their schedule gives them oxygen. Leeds (15) at Villa Park on 21 February should set the tone, Wolves (20) away on 27 February offers a chance to double down, then Chelsea (5) at home on 4 March before a proper barometer at Old Trafford against Manchester United (4) on 14 March. West Ham (18) at home on 21 March rounds out a month they’ll target for major gains.

April looks profitable too — Forest (17) away, Sunderland (11) at home, and Fulham (12) away — before the heat cranks up. Spurs (16) at Villa Park on 2 May, Burnley (19) away on 9 May, then two matches that will make or break the dream: Liverpool (6) at Villa Park on 17 May and Manchester City (2) away on 24 May. If Villa arrive at that Etihad finale within touching distance, the season could end in pure theatre.

Verdict: advantage Arsenal — if they hold their nerve

City’s ceiling is undeniable, but their April gauntlet is brutal. Arsenal’s slate softens at precisely the right time, provided they survive the Etihad night with their nerve intact. Villa’s path invites a charge, yet their finish is a cliff face. On balance, the schedule hands a slight edge to the current leaders — but one wobble, one moment, and this title race flips on its head. Wouldn’t have it any other way.