Haaland the hot favourite but Gyokeres sparks intrigue in AI’s Premier League scoring list
Right then, settle in. The future’s been given a proper once-over by Casino Hawks’ supercomputer and, as a self-appointed football oracle, it’s handed out some neat little verdicts on who will be propping up the Premier League scoring charts in 2025/26. Not shockingly, Erling Haaland is still the man everyone’s pencilling in, but there are plenty of twists beneath the headline.
How the prediction engine worked
The machine didn’t guess over a pint – it ran the numbers. Using each player’s xG from recent seasons, the algorithm generated projections and then put each name through 100,000 simulations, modelling goals with a Poisson distribution. For those who like stats more than small talk: it’s a robust simulation approach that gives a credible spread, not a wild punt. If you fancy checking markets while you read, have a gander at betting sites.
The big beasts: Haaland and the challengers
Erling Haaland is the headline act. The supercomputer pegs him at around 25 goals and hands him a hefty 76 per cent chance of finishing top. You’d be mad to back against him if form and fitness hold – the man eats defences for breakfast.
Close behind as the interesting story is Viktor Gyokeres. The model expects him to adapt to life in north London splendidly, projecting an xG of 18.3 and slotting him in as the second-highest scorer. That represents a major vote of confidence for the striker and Arsenal’s plans.
Alexander Isak’s late move to Liverpool has been factored in and, despite his big-money transfer, the data gives him only a 1.8 per cent chance of lifting the Golden Boot straight away – the supercomputer sees a little bedding-in period for him at Anfield.
Prominent names and mid-table nuisances
Mohamed Salah remains one of the league’s most reliable marksmen – 186 goals in 301 appearances for Liverpool over his time in English football speaks for itself. The model still lists him among the leading threats, so don’t expect him to suddenly stop doing what he does best.
There are some proper solid projections for the middle of the scoring chart. Jarrod Bowen is expected to hit roughly 13.3 goals (pen duties helping), Bruno Fernandes will continue to contribute regularly from midfield thanks to set-piece and penalty responsibility, while Cole Palmer is forecast to be just under 13.
One-season wonders, newcomers and those who might underperform
Not every name gets a glow-up. Benjamin Sesko, for instance, is predicted to miss the list with about 7.9 goals – a reminder that translating potential into Premier League returns isn’t a given. Matheus Cunha, despite some promising early nervous jinkiness for Manchester United, is not expected to reach double figures this time around. Morgan Rogers, fresh from last season’s breakthrough and the PFA Young Player gong, is forecast only about 8.3 goals – an underwhelming follow-up if it comes to pass.
Nick Woltemade, the 6ft 6in recruit at Newcastle, has the unenviable task of replacing Isak and is projected at roughly 9.2 goals. That’s not the kind of figure that sets supporters alight, but Newcastle have reinforcements and a system that should spread the scoring burden.
Richarlison and Dominic Solanke are both shown around 9.5 in the models while Ollie Watkins has a respectable xG of 13.8. Raul Jimenez’s minutes might dip with competition from Rodrigo Muniz, so any prediction of regression feels fair game but premature — he’s still an instinctive finisher.
Dark horses and dependable operators
Keep an eye on the likes of Ismaila Sarr (around 10) and Iliman Ndiaye (about 10.1); both could be very useful as their teams look to kick on. Yoane Wissa (10.3) and Bryan Mbeumo (10.7) are expected to chip in regularly too, even if they won’t match last season’s peaks. Igor Thiago has already shown glimpses (two in three) and could be Brentford’s saviour if he hits double figures.
Hugo Ekitike is forecast to manage about 11 in his maiden Premier League season at Liverpool, although the arrival of Isak may push him wide at times. Antoine Semenyo is projected around 11.9, underlining his value as a wide scorer for Bournemouth.
Jean-Philippe Mateta is tipped to better last season’s return and Chris Wood looks set to be around the 15-goal mark — both names you’d fancy to pop up in important moments for teams gunning for more than survival.
What it all means for managers and fans
These projections are a useful temperature check. They don’t replace form, injuries or the managerial tinkering that can make or break a striker’s season, but they do give a sense of who’s likely to shoulder the goalscoring load. Haaland remains the clear favourite, Gyokeres is the surprise second pick, and a clutch of familiar faces — Salah, Bowen, Watkins, Fernandes — will again be relied upon.
Take the numbers with the usual pinch of salt. Football is gloriously unpredictable, and if one or two of these projections go belly-up, you can bet there’ll be a punditry field day. But as a snapshot of the likely landscape for 2025/26, it’s an intriguing starting point and one ripe for debate.
So, put the kettle on and keep an eye on the early fixtures — the story of the Golden Boot race always writes itself in dramatic fashion, and this time the computer’s given us a fascinating opening chapter.
