KMI admit VAR blunder that could swing the title race between Arsenal and Man City

Two games to go and the margin for error is thinner than a linesman’s flag. Arsenal sit two points ahead of Manchester City, with the Gunners hosting Burnley before a tricky last-day trip to Crystal Palace. City, ever the late-season juggernaut, head to Bournemouth and then welcome Aston Villa to the Etihad. It’s going down to the wire — and the smallest decision might be the biggest story.

Forget the West Ham flashpoint — the City-Everton call is the real pivot

Plenty of noise swirled around Arsenal’s win over West Ham after a late Hammers leveller was scrubbed by VAR. But the moment that could truly reshape the destination of the trophy happened at the Etihad weeks earlier, and the Premier League’s Key Match Incidents panel has now underlined it.

In Manchester City’s 3-3 rollercoaster with Everton, Bernardo Silva grappled Merlin Röhl at a corner when the score was 3-2. Referee Michael Oliver didn’t spot it and VAR Paul Howard felt the holding began before the ball was in play, so he stayed out of it. This week, the KMI panel said the contact continued after the corner was taken — meaning a penalty should have been awarded. All five members agreed. David Moyes was incandescent on the day, and the panel’s verdict backs him to the hilt.

City, who had trailed 3-1 before rallying, eventually levelled in stoppage-time through Jérémy Doku after Erling Haaland had already struck. A classic neutral’s game, yes — but with stakes that stretch far beyond the 90 minutes.

Fine margins: the title maths

Here’s why it bites. If Arsenal take four points from their last two matches, they finish on 83. Should City win out, they also land on 83 — and, given their one-goal edge right now, you’d fancy them to pip it on goal difference if they rack up two more victories while Arsenal only notch one.

But if that Everton penalty had been given and converted, City are likely walking away empty-handed from that match rather than with the solitary point they banked. That’s one fewer point in their column. In a title race this tight, that’s the sort of swing that keeps managers awake at 3am.

Put bluntly: Doku’s late equaliser felt dramatic at the time; in the cold light of the KMI’s ruling, it could prove pivotal.

Silva’s set-piece gripe adds a twist of irony

There’s an extra wrinkle here. Bernardo Silva recently bemoaned the growing wrestling matches at corners, likening some of the grappling to rugby and lamenting how much of it is being tolerated. The irony won’t be lost on anyone: the very incident that should have drawn a penalty, per the KMI, involved Silva restraining his man as the ball came in. You couldn’t script it.

What it means for the run-in

Arsenal will argue they can only control what’s in front of them — Burnley at home, then a jittery jaunt to Selhurst Park. City, masters of the spring charge, must be spotless against Bournemouth and Villa. The league table may look brutal in black and white, but the context in grey — the officiating calls, the split-second judgments — might be what separates ribbons come May.

For fans crunching scenarios and scanning the form lines, the margins are absolutely razor-thin. If you’re weighing up how this finale shakes out, our guide to the season’s best value is worth a look on our Premier League title run-in hub via the best betting sites. Use your head, not just your heart.

Pundit’s verdict

The KMI’s admission won’t change the points now, but it sharpens the narrative: officiating accuracy matters more than ever when the title is decided by inches. Arsenal’s job is simple but not easy — hold their nerve and keep winning. City’s task is the usual: relentless, ruthless, and hope the maths falls their way. After this ruling, though, there’ll be more than a few in North London wondering if the key moment of the season didn’t happen at a corner in Manchester.