VAR-free Premier League 2025/26: Winners, losers and a title race on a knife-edge

Remember when we used to argue about throw-ins rather than pixel-thin offside lines? Pre-VAR life felt simpler. But the genie’s out the bottle: since a unanimous vote brought the Video Assistant Referee in for 2019/20, every Premier League match has been combed for clear and obvious howlers on goals, penalties, reds and mistaken identity.

This alternative 2025/26 league table asks a simple question: what if those contentious calls — the ones supporters reckon VAR got wrong — had been nailed on correctly? Using Squawka’s fan polls as the guide, and assuming any “should-be” penalties are converted, we’ve rebuilt the standings. Snapshot taken 28/04/2026.

Headline first: Arsenal would still top the pile on 71 points, Manchester City stalk them on 70, Manchester United sit third with 63, and Liverpool hold fourth on 58. At the other end, Wolves remain marooned, Burnley stay in the mire, and Spurs — yes, Spurs — are deep in the dogfight.

The relegation picture: Spurs in trouble, Wolves beyond rescue

Wolves have had three VAR-inspired breaks go their way and it still doesn’t shift the dial — rock-bottom on 17 points after 34 games, and looking every inch a side that ran out of road weeks ago.

Burnley? Scott Parker can’t even blame the tech. One big call for, two against, and that late equaliser against Brentford that vanished into the ether — yet they’re still 19th on 20 points. Harsh world, same outcome.

Now the shocker: Roberto De Zerbi’s Tottenham — Europa League holders, remember — have worn six calls against and four for. Strip out the errors and they’re two points better, but still teetering: 17th on 39, level with West Ham, who slip into 18th on 36. Leeds slide to 16th on 39, while Nottingham Forest climb to 15th with 45. Vítor Pereira’s Tricky Trees have ridden a few breaks, but nothing obscene.

Mid-table shake-up: Bournemouth burst, Palace hard done by

Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth are the poster boys for the “benefit of the doubt” era. Six favourable calls, just one against; take those away and the Cherries tumble from their real-time seventh into a far more modest 13th — still on 45 points, tucked just ahead of a steady-as-you-like Newcastle who remain 14th.

Brentford come back to the pack too. Keith Andrews’ Bees surrender three points and drift from ninth to 12th after several handy moments went their way across the campaign. Fine margins, big swing.

Crystal Palace supporters can feel properly aggrieved. One break in their favour, five against, despite last season’s glorious FA Cup triumph over Manchester City. In a fairer world they’d be two places better, up to 11th on 46 — essentially another win they’ve been denied. Oliver Glasner’s lot have performed better than the columnists’ table suggests.

Top-half movers: Sunderland soar, Chelsea charmed, Villa can’t complain

Back in the big time and brimming with front, Regis Le Bris’ Sunderland get stung by two penalty shouts that never came — one in a 1-1 with Everton, another in a Bournemouth stalemate. Give them their dues and they jump to 10th on 48.

Fulham inch up to ninth (48) even with a lopsided ledger — five in their favour, four against — including an iffy call that scrubbed a Josh King strike versus Chelsea for a supposed Rodrigo Muniz foul miles up the pitch.

Chelsea, for their part, have ridden the rub of the green more than anyone: seven big decisions have smiled on them (remember Eberechi Eze’s chalked-off beauty?). Even without the lucky breaks they still plant themselves seventh, albeit nudged to 49 points.

Everton’s column gets tidied up — four against, two for — and the Toffees climb to eighth on 48. Brighton are two spots happier in sixth on 52 after a season swimming in controversy (five for, three against). As for Aston Villa, Unai Emery can’t really throw stones here: five calls for, two against, including that let-off when Ian Maatsen’s handball shout wasn’t punished in a 2-1 over Chelsea. On balance they’d be two points lighter, yet they remain a robust fifth on 56.

The title race: Arsenal still edge it, City breathing down their necks

Liverpool have been hammered by the VAR narrative (seven against by the fans’ count), including the eyebrow-raiser when Virgil van Dijk’s leveller versus City was binned for offside. Even so, this cleansed table leaves them exactly where they are: fourth on 58. Not pretty, but precise.

Manchester United’s rollercoaster — Ruben Amorim in, then out, Michael Carrick steadying the ship — still plots a course to third. They’ve suffered eight alleged errors (the league’s worst tally), four in their favour too, and wind up two points lighter at 63. It’s a testament to their grit that the position doesn’t budge.

Manchester City keep the heat on in second with 70, a single point off the summit. Arsenal stay leaders on 71, though the Gunners have plainly enjoyed a few pivotal moments. Think Declan Rice’s non-penalty against Chelsea and the opening-day call when William Saliba escaped censure for contact with Matheus Cunha. They’ve looked a touch nervy of late, but in this parallel universe they’re still the team to reel in.

The verdict: VAR doesn’t flip the title, but it warps the middle

Strip away the contentious clips and the top stays intact — Arsenal, City, United, Liverpool — yet the middle tier lurches dramatically. Bournemouth are the biggest fallers, Palace the hard-luck story, Brentford shaved back, and Chelsea’s good fortune doesn’t buy them a Champions League ticket. Down the bottom, Spurs’ European glow can’t hide a relegation scrap.

If you’re weighing up form swings, luck and late-season value, it pays to know where the breaks really landed. Punters doing their homework on odds and angles can size up the landscape with our handpicked best betting sites and make their own calls.

Methodology note: standings reconstructed using Squawka’s supporter-voted VAR error ledger, with presumed penalty conversions. All information courtesy of Squawka, correct as of 28/04/2026.