Premier League Sack Race Power Rankings: Who’s Safe and Who’s Sweating (20–11)

The business end of the season is upon us, which usually means one thing: boardrooms get twitchy and the managerial merry-go-round starts creaking back into life. Just ask Ruben Amorim and Thomas Frank — both out at Manchester United and Tottenham respectively — a timely reminder that the Premier League shows zero sentiment when results dip.

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How we judged it

This ranking weighs up form trends, injury context, boardroom patience, transfer noise, and the ever-blinding media glare. Some are untouchable, others one sticky patch from the dreaded statement. Here’s 20 to 11 — the safest through to the slightly sweatier seats.

20) Mikel Arteta — Arsenal (Last season: 2nd)

Arsenal are still chasing that elusive league title, but Arteta’s stock remains sky-high. The Gunners navigated injury spells for Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz, leaned on Declan Rice’s growing leadership, and made a serious stride in Europe, reaching the Champions League semis before bowing to eventual winners PSG. They hit top spot heading into 2026 and, despite a wobble or two, remain favourites for the run-in. No danger here — he’s the project.

19) Régis Le Bris — Sunderland (Last season: Promoted)

A bold hire has paid off handsomely. Sunderland’s Wembley heroics brought them back to the big time for the first time since 2017, and Le Bris has married clear ideas with youth — hello Chris Rigg and Jobe Bellingham — plus the smart armband call for Granit Xhaka. Of the promoted sides, the Black Cats look the most streetwise; mid-table comfort suggests the Stadium of Light won’t be flicking the switch any time soon.

18) Pep Guardiola — Manchester City (Last season: 3rd)

Last season hurt after Rodri’s ACL blow derailed City’s title defence, but Guardiola inked fresh terms through 2027 and has shepherded a tidy reset. With Kevin De Bruyne waving farewell, new sporting director Hugo Viana backed Pep with Tijani Reijnders, Rayan Cherki and Rayan Aït-Nouri. City are in the Carabao Cup final and breathing down Arsenal’s necks. Whispers persist about his long-term future, but sacking? Behave.

17) Keith Andrews — Brentford (Last season: 10th)

Replacing Thomas Frank was a monster brief, yet Andrews — elevated from set-piece sage to head coach — hasn’t flinched. Even after losing Bryan Mbeumo to Manchester United and skipper Christian Nørgaard to Arsenal, Brentford have scalps for fun: Liverpool (3-2), United (3-1), and a home-and-away job on Newcastle. A European tilt is on, and the football has bite. He’s earned a long leash.

16) Michael Carrick — Manchester United (Last season: 15th)

The brief was clear: steady the ship post-Amorim, no long-term promises. Carrick’s responded with clean, sensible football and the feel-good hum only a club legend can summon. He’s already bettered Amorim’s win streak, reset the mood at Old Trafford, and with only 17 games on his slate thanks to early cup exits, the sample is small but strong. He’s favourite for the gig permanently; the sack isn’t on the table.

15) Unai Emery — Aston Villa (Last season: 6th)

Emery restored Villa’s swagger and European pedigree, but 2026 has gone off the boil: out of the FA Cup to Newcastle and league defeats to Arsenal, Everton, Brentford and bottom-placed Wolves. The objective remains Champions League qualification; the task now is to arrest the slide before a blip becomes a narrative. He’s too good — and too valuable — to be close to the trapdoor, but this is a test of mettle.

14) Marco Silva — Fulham (Last season: 11th)

Perennially underrated and perennially steady. Despite the churn at Craven Cottage, Silva’s guided Fulham to mid-table calm and an FA Cup semi last time out. Keeping Rodrigo Muniz (new deal), holding onto Antonee Robinson, and adding Oscar Bobb in January were tidy manoeuvres. The only wrinkle? His contract’s winding down. Not an immediate threat, but renewals — or the lack of them — can invite unhelpful noise.

13) Liam Rosenior — Chelsea (Last season: 4th)

Enzo Maresca’s New Year’s Day exit told you all you need to know about Chelsea’s tolerance levels. Enter Rosenior: bright, modern, and highly rated off an excellent Strasbourg stint, armed with a six-and-a-half-year deal. The early pattern? Eye-catching surges (including a thumping comeback v Palace) undercut by dropped points from winning positions — 19 lost this season. Not sack territory yet, but at Stamford Bridge the bar is brutal.

12) Andoni Iraola — Bournemouth (Last season: 9th)

Remember the outcry when Bournemouth binned Gary O’Neil? Iraola has since built an aggressive, fearless outfit: a 3-0 at Old Trafford and a double over Arsenal last year speak volumes. He’s had to reload after losing Dean Huijsen (Real Madrid), Milos Kerkez (Liverpool), Ilya Zabarnyi (PSG) and now Antoine Semenyo (Man City), but he’s recalibrated after a grim festive run with wins over Liverpool, Wolves and Everton, plus a draw with Villa. If anything, he’s more likely to be poached than pushed.

11) David Moyes — Everton (Last season: 13th)

Moyes’ return snapped Everton out of a funk, even amid a 10-point FFP hit. With The Friedkin Group now at the wheel, the Toffees look organised, rugged and upwardly mobile; a loan swoop for Jack Grealish underlined ambition. Form has plateaued a touch and they’re hovering just outside the Europa Conference spots, but the direction of travel is positive. Sack talk feels fanciful — though Goodison expectation can turn quickly if momentum stalls.

That’s the bottom half of the safety ladder. Next up: the managers closer to the flame.