Supercomputer tips Arsenal to end title drought as relegation scrap promises drama

Football doesn’t wait around. Seven gameweeks in, the supercomputer – running its numbers with Plejmo’s modelling – has spat out a full-season forecast that has Arsenal ending their two-decade title hoodoo, Liverpool giving chase, and a relegation bunfight you won’t be able to take your eyes off.

Last season’s context: Slot’s surge, Gunners second again, City third

Cast your mind back. Arne Slot’s Liverpool romped to a 20th league crown, Arsenal made it three successive runners-up finishes, and Manchester City rallied late to pinch third. Nottingham Forest gate-crashed Europe, while Tottenham and Manchester United endured their bleakest Premier League campaigns since the 1992 rebrand. That was then. This season’s script, according to the silicon soothsayer, is even spicier.

Relegation picture: survival by a whisker

The doom loop for promoted clubs might finally break. Leeds United and Sunderland are projected to stay up – the Black Cats having opened with five eye-catching weeks that left them fifth after seven matches, beaten only twice. The cost? Burnley are tipped to finish 20th on 33 points, Wolves 19th with 34 – winless after seven and leaking a gruesome 78 goals – and West Ham 18th on 40. The Hammers have lurched from Graham Potter’s dismissal to Nuno Espírito Santo’s salvage job, but the model says it won’t be enough.

Up the road, Brentford are forecast 17th (41 points), with Sunderland and Leeds also on 41 in 16th and 15th respectively. Daniel Farke has Leeds organised and awkward; aside from a pasting by Arsenal, they’ve looked in every game.

Bottom half: United stuck in the mud, Brighton steady, Fulham flatline

Manchester United’s growing pains under Rúben Amorim haven’t eased. New signings haven’t shifted the dial yet and, even after a first clean sheet in a 2-0 win over Sunderland, the projection pins them in 14th on 43 points – a solitary win above the trapdoor.

Fulham are forecast to tread water in 13th (44). Brighton dip a touch to 11th (45), though a sharp window – Maxim De Cuyper and Charalampos Kostoulas – and Fabian Hürzeler’s front-foot coaching should keep them lively. The Seagulls’ early wobble included a late collapse to draw with Fulham and a 2-0 loss at Everton, but a spirited comeback against Manchester City in gameweek three reminded everyone what they’re about.

Everton, with American owners, a shiny Hill Dickinson Stadium and Jack Grealish sprinkled into the mix, were tipped by some to surprise. The machine says 12th (45). Defeats to Liverpool and Leeds gnawed, particularly given the Toffees then snapped Crystal Palace’s 19-match unbeaten run – a sign there’s more in the tank than mid-table anonymity.

Top half: Forest falter, Villa rally, Newcastle adapt

Forest’s separation from Nuno Espírito Santo looks costly. Under Ange Postecoglou they’ve yet to win after seven, bowed out of the League Cup to Swansea having led 2-0, and are projected to sink to 10th (46) – a jarring step back after last season’s Europa berth.

Aston Villa would snap your hand off for the supercomputer’s ninth (54) after a stodgy start. PSR turbulence has clipped Unai Emery’s wings, but a 3-1 over Fulham to get Ollie Watkins off the mark, then a Donyell Malen brace to edge Burnley 2-1, suggests momentum is building.

Even with Alexander Isak sold to Liverpool for a record fee, Newcastle are tipped eighth (57). Anthony Elanga, Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa are backed to share the burden. St James’ Park remains a fortress, the defence is drilled, and the manager’s Premier League nous still counts – even if late gut-punches from Liverpool and Arsenal sting.

European chasers: Spurs revived, Palace rising, Bournemouth buzzing

From 17th last year to fifth now would be a thunderclap of a turnaround for Tottenham under Thomas Frank. Mohammed Kudus has already served notice with two assists in a 4-0 dismantling of Burnley, while João Palhinha bossed a 2-0 win over Manchester City. Only Bournemouth have clipped Frank’s wings so far – and the Cherries, under Andoni Iraola, are forecast to gatecrash seventh (58) and grab a Europa Conference League ticket.

Crystal Palace, who stood firm to keep Marc Guéhi, continue to bloom under Oliver Glasner. With an FA Cup and Community Shield already banked and a 19-game unbeaten streak recently snapped by Everton, the numbers say sixth (63) – and a deserved Europa League seat after last season’s multi-club muddle denied them.

The title race: Arsenal at last, Liverpool chasing, City transition, Chelsea cling on

Here’s the headline: Arsenal to finish top on 90 points, Liverpool second on 83. City are chalked in for third (66) amid a subtle reset, even with Erling Haaland back in a purple patch – three against Big Six rivals in a fortnight, three more goal involvements in a 5-1 against Burnley, and the winner versus Brentford. Chelsea sneak fourth on 66, a single point clear of fifth, which hints at another squeaky run-in at Stamford Bridge despite all that pre-season optimism.

Liverpool’s summer was lavish – smashing the British transfer record twice to land Florian Wirtz and Isak, plus Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez, Giovanni Leoni and Hugo Ekitike – yet the model still has them a stride behind Mikel Arteta’s machine. With Viktor Gyökeres leading the line and Eberechi Eze adding guile between the lines, Arsenal’s steel is striking: just three conceded in their first six, and all against the run of play. The suggestion is clear: patience in the project pays off.

Snapshot: Arsenal 90, Liverpool 83; City and Chelsea level on 66 with the Blues edging fourth; Spurs 65; Palace 63; Bournemouth 58; Newcastle 57; Villa 54. At the bottom, West Ham 40, Wolves 34 and Burnley 33 go down, while Leeds, Sunderland and Brentford all survive on 41. Only eight points span 15th to 20th – strap in for a last-day cliffhanger.

And if you fancy a flutter

Numbers are one thing; nerves on a rainy April night are another. If you’re weighing the odds behind these projections, make sure you’ve got the right bookie shortlist – here’s where the best betting sites can help you keep your punts disciplined rather than daft.

One thing’s certain: the computer has cast its vote. Now it’s over to the managers, the margins and the mayhem of a Premier League season that never, ever reads the script.