Arsenal backed by the numbers as United surge and Spurs sweat

We’ve barely caught our breath after Liverpool’s procession to title No 20 under Arne Slot last term, but football never sleeps. The boffins have whirred back into life and Opta’s supercomputer has spat out its latest 2025-26 Premier League forecast — and there’s plenty to get tongues wagging.

The big picture: Gunners primed to end the wait

Headline call: Arsenal are projected to win the Premier League on 84 points, with Manchester City second on 76, Aston Villa third with 66 and Manchester United fourth on 64. That’s the numbers talking — and, I’ll be honest, the eye test isn’t far behind. Mikel Arteta’s lot have learned how to grind; City, usually ominous at this stage, have blinked at the wrong moments — that slip against Forest could be the bruise that won’t fade.

Villa looked like dark horses not long ago, but the pace has told. A derby reverse to Wolves and a chaotic 4-1 scoreline against Chelsea at Villa Park underline the wobble. As for United, the mood music has changed completely since Ruben Amorim’s exit. Michael Carrick’s come in hot — six wins from seven, scalps of City and Arsenal — even if a setback against Newcastle was a reality check.

Europe-chasers and the nearly-men

Liverpool’s second season under Slot has been more rollercoaster than parade. Big summer buys — Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz — promised fireworks, but consistency’s been the missing act. Still, fifth on 63 points isn’t a catastrophe, and Chelsea, also on 63 in sixth, are right there under Liam Rosenior, even if we’re still working out exactly what they are.

Brentford in seventh on 57 feels very Bees: lose Bryan Mbeumo to United, Yoane Wissa to Newcastle and Thomas Frank to Spurs, then hand Keith Andrews the keys and keep buzzing anyway. Everton in eighth with 54 is a proper revival tale — new American owners, Bramley-Moore bouncing, Jack Grealish adding stardust, and David Moyes playing conductor. Newcastle (ninth, 52) remain streaky — from flattening City to fluffing their lines in the derby at Sunderland — while Bournemouth (tenth, 52) keep punching above their weight despite Antoine Semenyo’s exit.

Mid-table muscle and muddle

Fulham look set for 11th on 51, progress if not liftoff. Sunderland at 12th (50) will gladly bank that on their Premier League return. Brighton in 13th (50) have traded the underdog cape for something more sensible under Fabian Hürzeler, and Crystal Palace in 14th (48) are riding a soap opera: Community Shield winners and early-season Liverpool slayers, only to sell Marc Guéhi to City and watch Oliver Glasner confirm he’s off at season’s end.

Survival scrap: Spurs sweating, Forest clinging, Hammers sinking

Here’s where it gets tasty. Leeds are tipped 15th on 42 — safe, just — and Tottenham a nervy 16th on 41. The post-Ange hangover is real: Thomas Frank tried to steady it, now Igor Tudor’s first steps have come with bruises against Arsenal, Fulham and Palace. Nottingham Forest (17th, 40) are clinging on after a season of sackings — three managers gone, Sean Dyche the latest — and the margins look razor-thin.

Below the line? West Ham on 38 points in 18th despite flickers of life against Burnley, Sunderland, Spurs and Fulham. Burnley, stuck on 27 in 19th, look resigned to their fate under Scott Parker — one win in eight tells its own tale — and Wolves are forecast to finish bottom on 25. Yes, they finally won at the 20th attempt and even stunned Villa and Liverpool, but the early damage was brutal and may be beyond repair.

How the computer sees it — by the numbers

Top four: 1) Arsenal 84, 2) Man City 76, 3) Aston Villa 66, 4) Man United 64.

Europe and upper mid-table: 5) Liverpool 63, 6) Chelsea 63, 7) Brentford 57, 8) Everton 54, 9) Newcastle 52, 10) Bournemouth 52.

Mid-pack: 11) Fulham 51, 12) Sunderland 50, 13) Brighton 50, 14) Crystal Palace 48.

Relegation fight: 15) Leeds 42, 16) Tottenham 41, 17) Nottingham Forest 40, 18) West Ham 38, 19) Burnley 27, 20) Wolves 25.

Final whistle

So there you have it: Arsenal to break their two-decade hoodoo, City playing chasers, United reborn under Carrick, and Spurs looking over their shoulders. There’ll be twists, tantrums and likely a managerial merry-go-round encore — but if the silicon brains are right, the Gunners finally get their parade.

If you fancy weighing up the odds yourself, have a nose around the best betting sites — and remember, the only certainty in this league is that nothing’s certain for long.