Arsenal tipped to nick it as supercomputer maps a madcap 2025/26 Premier League
Last season’s dust has barely settled – Liverpool, under Arne Slot, romped to a record-extending 20th league crown – but the calculators are already whirring for 2025/26. And the latest Opta-powered supercomputer reckons we’re in for a tight one at the top. Arsenal are forecast to take the title on 83 points, pipping Manchester City on 80, while Manchester United charge back into the Champions League and Liverpool cling to fourth after a turbulent defence of their crown.
The title race: Arsenal by a nose
Mikel Arteta’s lot are tipped to steady their late-season nerves and get over the line. A slick 3-0 over Fulham and a gritty win at West Ham are the sort of grown-up results champions bank, and the model says that’s your margin. City, naturally, won’t go quietly – comfortable 3-0 statements against Brentford and Crystal Palace underline that – but the machine says second by three.
United reborn, Liverpool wobble
From crisis to conviction at Old Trafford. Michael Carrick has injected purpose and calm, winning nine of his first 14 and bagging big scalps in City, Arsenal, Villa and Chelsea. The projection? Third on 68 points – and fully deserved. Liverpool, despite the summer fireworks of Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz, have lurched from one speed bump to another. Fourth on 62 keeps them in the elite, but the jury’s out on how they rediscover last term’s swagger.
For punters sizing up the market, our best betting sites guide is a tidy compass – and the numbers here tell their own story: 83 for Arsenal, 80 for City, 68 for United, 62 for Liverpool. Bookmark it, argue about it, but don’t say you weren’t warned.
Europe hopefuls and overachievers
Aston Villa have flirted with something special and still look good for fifth on 61. It’s been a mixed spell – a grim 2-0 at Wolves, a rollicking 4-1 over Chelsea, then a setback at Old Trafford – but Champions League football remains on the cards. Bournemouth’s fairytale under Andoni Iraola rumbles on at sixth with 57, fresh from that eye-catching 2-1 win over title favourites Arsenal. Brighton, quietly efficient under Fabian Hürzeler, are pegged for seventh on 56 and a Europa Conference League berth.
Brentford, despite a summer exodus – Bryan Mbeumo to Manchester United, Yoane Wissa to Newcastle and Thomas Frank off to Spurs – have held their nerve under Keith Andrews and project eighth on 54. Chelsea, stuck in a stop-start cycle and having parted with Liam Rosenior, slide to ninth on 52. Everton round out the top half on 52 too; the Moyes reboot, new American ownership, Bramley-Moore buzz and the Jack Grealish marquee signing promise plenty, even if derby wounds and a late City equaliser have stung.
Mid-table muddle
Fulham finally crack the 50-point glass ceiling in 11th. Sunderland’s return to the big time has been refreshingly bold – a win over Spurs and a draw with United help set a course for 12th on 50. Newcastle, maddeningly hot-and-cold, are marooned in 13th on 49 after a torrid run of nine losses in 12 was eased only by a 3-1 over Brighton – and yes, losing both Tyne–Wear derbies to Sunderland hasn’t helped the mood. Leeds ride out a relegation scare to 14th on 46, powered by that massive 2-1 at Old Trafford in April.
Palace steady, Forest firefight
Crystal Palace are forecast 15th on 46 – no mean feat after a whirlwind year. An FA Cup in the cabinet, two early-season wins over Liverpool (Community Shield and league) to bloody Slot’s nose, then the rug pulled: captain Marc Guéhi sold to City and Oliver Glasner confirming he’ll go at season’s end. Nottingham Forest, who’ve rattled through managers – Sean Dyche among those shown the door – are tipped to cling on in 16th with 45 after a stirring 3-1 against Chelsea was followed by a reality check at City.
Spurs scrape clear, Hammers sunk
Tottenham have rolled the dice on Roberto De Zerbi and, to be fair, there’s a bounce: eight points from his first five, a gutsy 2-1 over Villa, then frustration in a 1-1 with Leeds. It’s enough, says the model: 17th on 41 and breaths collectively exhaled across N17. West Ham, though, are the headline casualty. Despite green shoots – wins over Burnley, Sunderland, Spurs and Fulham, a precious point against City and a 4-0 blitz of Wolves – a flat 3-0 at Brentford has the machine spitting out 18th on 39. The trapdoor beckons.
The drop: Clarets and Wolves follow
Burnley’s malaise hardened into inevitability: just one win in 26 (that wild 3-2 over Palace) and a projected 19th on 23. Bottom of the pile? Wolves on 20. They didn’t sniff a win until matchweek 20, and while shockers against Villa and Liverpool have restored a bit of pride, the hole was simply too deep. No miracles this time.
How the model sees it
This projection is built on Opta data and simulations of the full fixture list. It’s not mystic meg; it’s probabilities, trends and performances baked into thousands of season run-throughs. On the balance of it all, Arsenal’s composure, City’s relentlessness, United’s revival and Liverpool’s turbulence frame the top four – with Spurs surviving by the skin of their teeth and West Ham joining Burnley and Wolves in the Championship.
