Supercomputer tips Arsenal to end drought as giants jostle and Wolves wobble

Football doesn’t give you a minute, does it? No sooner have we filed away last season’s shocks — Liverpool storming to title No 20 under Arne Slot, Arsenal finishing runners-up for a third year on the bounce, City scrambling third, Forest charging into Europe, and horror shows from Spurs and United — the supercomputer has spat out fresh judgement for the 2025/26 run-in.

Powered by Opta’s simulations, the model has crunched the fixture list and the form to map out who smiles in May and who gets swallowed by the trapdoor. Headline verdict: Arsenal to finish on 85 points, Manchester City a distant second on 75, with Aston Villa and Manchester United level on 65 to wrap up the Champions League places. If you’re eyeing the odds as the run-in bites, have a peek at the best betting sites before the market moves.

The title race: Arteta’s moment, Pep playing catch-up

Arsenal, the nearly men no more if this is right, are tipped to finally convert promise into medals. Keep City at arm’s length after that key win over Everton and Mikel Arteta silences the last doubters about his credentials. This sort of breakthrough can snowball; if the Gunners lift the Premier League, don’t be shocked if it sparks a glut of silverware.

City being City, they’ve mounted a late charge, but the machine doesn’t fancy them to reel it all the way in. Draws with West Ham and Nottingham Forest loom large — Pep Guardiola’s lot are projected to stall at 75 points. Villa, who flirted with an outsider’s title tilt, have hit a sticky patch — a grim 2-0 derby defeat at Wolves and a 4-1 thumping by Chelsea at Villa Park — yet should cling to third on goal difference. Manchester United? From basket case to bounce-back under Michael Carrick after Ruben Amorim’s January exit — six wins in seven including statement scalps of City and Arsenal — and the Red Devils ride that surge into fourth despite a bump against Newcastle.

European contenders: Reds regroup, Blues in the mix, Bees buzzing

Liverpool’s second season under Slot has been a white-knuckle ride. Big-name arrivals Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz signalled intent, but inconsistency bites; fifth on 63 points wouldn’t be a disaster, though the Anfield thermometer will be checking how hot the manager’s seat gets. Chelsea under Liam Rosenior are streaky yet dangerous — sixth on 61 keeps Champions League hope flickering. Brentford, amid wholesale upheaval — Bryan Mbeumo to Manchester United, Yoane Wissa to Newcastle, and Thomas Frank lured to Spurs — have Keith Andrews steadying the tiller. Seventh on 57 would be a minor miracle and a major credit to the Bees’ recruitment.

Newcastle’s season has been a riddle — giant-killing highs, derby-day lows — and eighth on 54 feels about right, even after that eye-catching win at Stamford Bridge. Everton, with new American ownership, Bramley-Moore bouncing and Jack Grealish adding stardust for David Moyes, are pegged for ninth on 53. Brighton slip under the radar in tenth on 52; not the fairytale of yesteryear, but Fabian Hürzeler gets enough right to nick a top-half berth.

Mid-table grit: Cherries chew it up, Fulham flatline, Palace in flux

Bournemouth keep defying the gravity of their budget — 11th on 51 and still swinging even after Antoine Semenyo’s winter exit. Fulham flirt with pushing on but can’t quite break the ceiling; 12th on 51 tells a tale of two steps forward, one step back. Sunderland’s Premier League return has bite and blemish in equal measure — a wobble here and there but a respectable 13th on 49 beckons.

Crystal Palace, fresh from last season’s FA Cup triumph and twin takedowns of Liverpool — the Community Shield and a league jolt — now feel the aftershocks: captain Marc Guéhi sold to City and Oliver Glasner confirming he’s off in the summer. Fourteenth on 49 keeps them comfy enough, but the project’s next chapter needs a clear pen.

The dogfight: Spurs sweat, Forest churn, Hammers tumble

Here’s where the nails get chewed. Leeds are forecast 15th on 42 — a priceless survival in a year when the promoted boys finally buck the trend. Spurs, from Ange Postecoglou’s Europa League high to managerial musical chairs — Thomas Frank in and out before Igor Tudor’s rocky start featuring losses to Arsenal, Fulham and Palace — land on 40 points in 16th. That’s too close for comfort for a club of their heft.

Forest have been chaos merchants — three managers sacked with Sean Dyche among the casualties — but the algorithm still has them clinging to 17th on 39. West Ham, even with green shoots at the London Stadium — wins over Burnley, Sunderland, Spurs and Fulham plus a massive point against City — are tipped for 18th on 38. It’s the fine margins that kill you.

Trapdoor: Clarets and Wolves cut adrift

Scott Parker’s Burnley can’t turn performances into points — just one win in eight (that 3-2 over Palace) — and 27 points spells 19th. Wolverhampton Wanderers, who didn’t taste victory until their 20th attempt, are pegged to prop up the table on 25 despite a recent flicker, including surprise scalps of Aston Villa and Liverpool. Rob Edwards’ side have restored a bit of pride, sure, but the early-season damage looks terminal.

The verdict in numbers

Champions: Arsenal (85)

2) Manchester City (75)

3) Aston Villa (65)

4) Manchester United (65)

5) Liverpool (63)

6) Chelsea (61)

7) Brentford (57)

8) Newcastle United (54)

9) Everton (53)

10) Brighton & Hove Albion (52)

11) Bournemouth (51)

12) Fulham (51)

13) Sunderland (49)

14) Crystal Palace (49)

15) Leeds United (42)

16) Tottenham Hotspur (40)

17) Nottingham Forest (39)

18) West Ham United (38)

19) Burnley (27)

20) Wolverhampton Wanderers (25)

Crunch the numbers all you like — the beautiful game has a habit of ripping up scripts. But if this model’s on the money, Arsenal fans best get the bunting ready, and the rest had better sharpen their recruitment. May’s going to be box office.