VAR winners, hard-done-bys and the big ‘what if’ of 2025/26

Well, that’s the lot for 2025/26. Arsenal are champions, and we’re waving off West Ham, Burnley and Wolves. But here’s the kicker: when you tot up the season’s officiating gaffes, the picture gets spicier than a Friday-night curry. The Premier League’s Key Match Incidents (KMI) panel data, highlighted by BBC Sport, paints a clear tale of fine margins and a few very handy breaks.

VAR’s verdict: London calling (in your favour)

Start with VAR alone and it’s blue and red in the spotlight. Chelsea came out on top with four decisions going their way and none against. Arsenal weren’t far behind: three for, zero against. Newcastle and Bournemouth also landed on the right side of the ledger, while Tottenham nicked a modest boost.

At the other end, Crystal Palace copped it worst with three going against them and nothing back in return. Everton and Brighton also finished in the red. Manchester United and Liverpool? More calls went against them than for, which won’t surprise either fanbase after some of the season’s eyebrow-raisers. Manchester City, interestingly, broke even on VAR itself (one for, one against), but their gripes came elsewhere.

The human factor: when the ref’s whistle stings

Shift to the non-VAR stuff – the missed second yellows, soft pens not deemed ‘clear and obvious’ to overturn – and the picture changes. Everton and Sunderland enjoyed three net decisions in their favour, Wolves even more volume (four for, one against) despite their drop. Arsenal also profited here with a +2 swing, as did Liverpool.

On specifics, Arsenal’s ledger includes a wrongly awarded Max Dowman penalty against Leeds and Mikel Merino avoiding a second yellow versus Aston Villa. Everton, meanwhile, benefited from two overlooked spot-kicks and a potential James Garner red that never came. Down the other end of the spectrum, Bournemouth had the roughest ride (net -4), with Aston Villa, Newcastle and Leeds all suffering hefty negatives. Manchester City and Tottenham each finished -2 on pure referee calls – not nothing, and exactly the sort of drip-drip that turns title races and top-four scraps twitchy.

The combined picture: Gunners and Blues top the ‘benefit’ table

Add VAR and ref errors together and two names sit joint-top: Arsenal and Chelsea, each with a net +5. Wolves are next-best at +4, then Sunderland and West Ham at +2. Liverpool and Everton squeak into the positives.

Bottom of the combined pile? Leeds at -4, with Aston Villa on -3 and a clutch of sides – including Manchester City, Bournemouth, Brighton and Crystal Palace – marooned on -2. City’s overall mark won’t shock Pep or their support; while they broke even on VAR, the human calls tilted against them, leaving them tied among the league’s most aggrieved.

So, did it decide the title?

Here’s the honest pundit’s take: Arsenal were worthy champions on the pitch – consistent, ruthless and resolute. But the KMI sums say they, alongside Chelsea, enjoyed the cleanest tailwind from the officials. Would it have flipped the table? We can’t say for certain, but you’d fancy the margins could’ve made a handful of fixtures look very different, especially for clubs living on the knife-edge at both ends.

Winners, losers and the season’s ‘what if’

Winners from the process: Chelsea and Arsenal on the headline numbers; Wolves and Sunderland made hay too, even if the former still went down. Losers: Leeds and Villa took a bath, City and Spurs were firmly on the wrong end of human error, and Palace’s VAR-only ledger was brutal.

For those who live by the small print – punters included – keeping track of these marginal swings matters. If you care about angles and edge, have a browse of our best betting sites to compare markets across the campaign’s big talking points.

The takeaway

KMI data won’t heal the grudges, but it does frame the debate. Arsenal and Chelsea topped the benefit charts at +5 apiece. City’s frustrations weren’t imagined. Leeds had a nightmare. And the sport’s ongoing dance between technology and human judgment remains exactly that – a dance. Tight calls will keep stoking the arguments next season; the only guarantee is we’ll be here to pick the bones out of it again.