SPAL vs. AC Milan – Betting Tips and Serie A Preview

SPAL is finishing this Serie A campaign way above the relegation zone. The majority of experts predicted a tough and unpleasant season for this team, saying that SPAL could easily lose the place in the top tier of Italian football. However, Leonardo Semplici’s boys eventually surprised everyone and found their way in the middle of the standings, with 42 points at the moment. The Estensi had several solid games at home over the recent few weeks.

They posted three wins in a row, all of them against top Italian sides, like Roma 2-1, Lazio 1-0, and champions Juventus 2-1. After that, came a draw against Genoa, and a loss to Napoli, but all in all we can say that this team had an excellent run in the critical time of the season. The usual efficiency in the matches at Mazza is a moderate one, meaning 2 or 3 goals. Four of the latest 5 encounters there saw this range, and only one during that span didn’t end with both teams to score.

AC Milan did one very strange thing last Monday, which is not in the spirit of sports and modern football. They offered UEFA to accept a one-year ban from the international competitions for breaching Financial Fair Play rules, but only if they finish outside the top four places in Serie A. If by any chance they jump over Inter, that deal would not go through. Really strange. But to get back to our betting business here. Rossoneri are just one point behind Inter, and three behind Atalanta but have chances to finish in top four if either of these two teams loses and they win against SPAL. Milan has three straight wins in which they haven’t allow a single goal, but when looking matches outside San Siro, the situation is not that bright at all. Only one victory in the previous five events. Regarding the efficiency, their games are almost always ending with under 2.5 goals. Only one in the latest 10 went above that limit.

Team News

Simone Missiroli might be unavailable for this match, and he is questionable because of his rib injury.

Ivan Strinic, Davide Calabria, Giacomo Bonaventura, and Mattia Caldara are all injured and won’t play this match. Lucas Paqueta is suspended because of the red card.

Prediction

AC Milan needs to win this match, and hope that one of their rivals isn’t going to be successful against their opponents. SPAL is in great shape, and they don’t have any pressure upon their shoulders, but we still have to give an edge to the guests, who are in a must-win situation. Champions League is a huge motivation, and there is no doubt that Rossoneri are going to give everything they have to come out with all three points from this event. Odds on their triumph are best at Betway 11/20.

As for the efficiency, we saw that Milan has a defensive-minded approach and that they have a tendency to protect Donnarumma first and to attack later. SPAL is a bit more open, and likes to attack, especially at home, which is why we suggest betting on a moderate efficiency here, 2 or 3 goals. It is something which should be realistic, and above all, profitable for all our punters. Bet365 offers us excellent odds, 11/10 for this pick.