Premier League Power Shift: Who’s Kicked On and Who’s Gone Backwards?

Twenty-nine games down (bar Arsenal and Wolves on 30), nine to go, and the Premier League is still as open as a corner shop on matchday. Arsenal have their noses in front, Manchester City are lurking like they always do, and the scrap at the bottom looks set to go the distance. Here’s how every club stacks up on points compared to this stage last season — and what it tells us about the run-in. Data via Transfermarkt as of 08/03/26.

For the avoidance of doubt, all comparisons are to gameweek 29 of 2024/25 (Arsenal and Wolves one game more this time). If you’re weighing up the run-in with the best betting sites, remember the margins are razor-thin at both ends of the table.

20–16: Wolves sinking, Forest freefall, Spurs stuck in the mud

Wolves are rooted to the bottom and miles off the pace — 13 points worse than this time last year and sitting on just 16. They finished 16th in 2024/25 and were 17th at this stage; this time they look bang in trouble despite a flicker of life lately.

Nottingham Forest’s collapse is the headline act. Third at this point last season, now marooned on 28 points and a whopping 26 worse off; from European chasers to relegation worriers in a year — a staggering swing that changes the whole complexion of the bottom six.

West Ham (28 points, six worse off) are in the mire too, while Burnley (19 points) can’t be compared year-on-year after last season’s Championship stint — same goes for Leeds. As for Tottenham, 29 points and five down on last term tells a sorry tale. Neither Thomas Frank nor Igor Tudor has found the quick fix after Ange Postecoglou’s departure; the alarm bells are still tinkling in N17.

15–11: Brighton backpedal, Palace plod on, Newcastle lose their punch

Leeds sit 15th on 31 (no comparison), but the eye-catcher is Brighton’s drop: 37 points, 10 worse than this point last year, and drifting towards their rivals. Crystal Palace are doing Palace things — 38 points, just one down, mid-table written all over them.

Newcastle have come off the boil in a big way: 39 points, 11 fewer than last season’s charge when they were fourth at this stage. A top-half finish isn’t guaranteed on this trajectory. Sunderland, newly up, are a bright spot at 40 points with no direct comp — exceeding expectations without any fuss.

10–6: Solid citizens, buzzing Bees, and a Liverpool nosedive

Fulham (40, down five) and Bournemouth (40, down four) are broadly fine — respectable, organised, nowhere near panic stations. Everton fans will love this: 43 points and nine better off than last year in their first season at the Hill Dickinson Stadium. David Moyes, Conference League winner in a prior life, has quietly put Europe in view.

Brentford deserve a nod: 44 points, three up, and Keith Andrews has steadied the ship after Thomas Frank — tidy work amid doubters. Then there’s Liverpool: 48 points, an eye-watering 22 down on last season’s pace. Big summer outlay — Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike — but the step back is undeniable. From title tempo to top-four tussle in a flash.

5–1: Chelsea reset, United reborn, Villa level up, City charge, Arsenal assured

Chelsea swapped Enzo Maresca for Liam Rosenior in January, and they’re effectively holding station: 48 points, one down on last year and fifth again at this stage. The harder yards are ahead, but the floor looks higher.

Manchester United are the big climbers: 51 points, 14 up on last season. Michael Carrick has simplified, solidified, and sharpened things — one league defeat since taking over and a clean shot at the top five with no Europe to juggle.

Aston Villa are six up (51) on a season that was already good; Unai Emery’s raised the ceiling, even if a recent wobble has nudged them out of the title chat. Manchester City look far more like themselves: 60 points, 12 up on their sub-par 2024/25 pace. Vulnerable in moments, yes, but with Pep in charge you’d be brave — or daft — to count them out.

Arsenal are the pacesetters on 67, six better than this point last term. It’s not a quantum leap, but it’s the kind of steady, controlled improvement title winners are built on. They haven’t blown the doors off — they might not need to.

Winners, losers, and what the run-in promises

The biggest winners: Manchester United (+14), Manchester City (+12), and Aston Villa (+6) — all trending the right way when the pressure climbs. The biggest losers: Nottingham Forest (–26) and Liverpool (–22), with Brighton (–10) and Newcastle (–11) also coughing up last year’s gains.

At the bottom, Wolves need a minor miracle, while West Ham, Forest, Spurs and Leeds are set for a white-knuckle finish. Up top, Arsenal control their destiny, City are on the march, and Chelsea, United, Villa and Liverpool are elbowing for Champions League chairs before the music stops.

In a season where small margins are everything, the points swing table is a brutal truth-teller. Arsenal’s marginal gains could finally bring the big payoff; City’s surge says the champions’ instincts still flicker; United’s revival is real; and Liverpool’s regression is the story Klopp’s successors — and the dressing room — must rewrite in a hurry.