Baku battle on the cards as injury-hit Newcastle eye Champions League breakthrough

Newcastle make the long haul to the Tofig Bahramov Republican Stadium on Wednesday for a Champions League playoff first leg that could define their season. Qarabag aren’t here by accident either — they finished 22nd in the League Phase with 10 points from eight, scalping Benfica and Copenhagen and nicking a draw off Chelsea. The Magpies were 12th with 14 points, banking wins over Union SG, Benfica and Athletic Club, and a gritty point away at PSG. This is a proper test of nerve and nous.

Qarabag team news

Home keeper Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev is set to miss out again, having been sidelined since mid-November. That means the gloves stay with his deputy. On the flank, Kady Borges is available despite a weekend red in domestic action — the ban doesn’t carry over to Europe, which is a welcome boost for Gurban Gurbanov’s plans.

Newcastle team news

Eddie Howe’s had better weeks. Captain Bruno Guimarães is out for around eight weeks with a hamstring problem, ruling him out until after the March international break. Fabian Schär (ankle), Tino Livramento (hamstring) and Lewis Miley (hamstring) are also sidelined, while Emil Krafth has undergone knee surgery and is likely done for the season.

There is some light: Joelinton is back in the squad after training well and should inject much-needed power into midfield. Sven Botman and Yoane Wissa could also be involved after missing the weekend FA Cup win at Aston Villa — squad depth that Howe may need as the minutes bite.

Howe’s message is simple enough: strongest side available, no peeking at the schedule. Lewis Miley has progressed after what was essentially a nasty dead leg that disrupted muscle tissue, while Krafth’s setback required surgical intervention, hence the lengthy layoff.

Predicted Newcastle XI

Starting XI: Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Burn, Hall; Joelinton, Tonali; J. Murphy, Ramsey, Gordon; Woltemade.

Bench: Ramsdale (GK), Ruddy (GK), A. Murphy (DEF), Shahar (DEF), Neave (MID), Willock (MID), Barnes (FWD), Elanga (FWD), Wissa (FWD), Osula (FWD).

Qarabag outlook (XI)

With Mahammadaliyev out, expect his stand-in to continue in goal and for Qarabag to lean on their familiar European shape, with Borges in contention out wide. They’ve shown they can bloody the nose of big hitters — Benfica and Copenhagen found that out — so underestimate them at your peril.

Pundit’s view: key battles and trends

This will be hostile and high-tempo. Without Bruno pulling the strings, Newcastle’s control rests on Tonali’s rhythm and Joelinton’s bite — a big shift for the pair. Set pieces could be the Magpies’ golden ticket: Trippier’s delivery onto the heads of Burn and Thiaw is an obvious route to goal in a tight tie. At the other end, Qarabag love transition moments; cut out the cheap turnovers and you silence half their threat.

And after Alan Shearer’s withering take on decisions in the 3-1 FA Cup win at Villa Park, don’t be shocked if the officiating is under the microscope from the first whistle. Keep cool, win your duels, and the rest takes care of itself.

If you’re weighing up a flutter, compare the latest prices across the best betting sites — this tie is delicately poised and small margins will dictate value. Shop around before kick-off and keep an eye on team sheets for late swings.

Verdict

It’s a proper away-day examination, but Newcastle arrive with form and a bit of steel. Qarabag won’t roll over — they rarely do here — yet if the Magpies manage the crowd, dominate restarts and protect the ball, they can drag a result back to Tyneside. Edge to Newcastle on moments, but expect a one-goal game either way.

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